TLDR

• ⚡ Markets move in cycles—understand them, and you’ll always be ahead of the herd. Study the Decade Cycle.

• 📅 2025 is set to be a powerhouse year—but 2026-2027 scream turbulence. Play aggressive, but exit smart.

• 🏗️ Real estate follows an 18.6-year cycle—peaking around 2026-2027. When it cracks, the dominoes fall.

• 💰 The elite don’t fear crashes—they position early. Hold cash, hard assets, and watch for the tipping point.

The financial markets are cyclical, and if you understand these cycles, you can position yourself ahead of the herd. One of the key cycles that seasoned investors keep a close eye on is the Decade Cycle —a historical pattern in the stock market that has repeated time and time again.

The Decade Cycle: A Roadmap for Predicting Markets

The Decade Cycle suggests that each year within a 10-year period follows a distinct pattern. Market historians like Edson Gould , Yale Hirsch , and W.D. Gann observed that asset prices behave consistently across decades.

Breaking Down the 10-Year Pattern

• 🔹 Years ending in 0-2 : Typically bearish, marking bottoms or weak recoveries. These are consolidation years before the real momentum begins.

• 🔹 Years ending in 3-4 : A buildup phase where markets stage a notable recovery and start to look bullish.

• 🔹 Years ending in 5 : The strongest of the decade—these years almost always exhibit powerful bullish movements.

• 🔹 Years ending in 6 : A continuation of the bullish trend but with signs of weakening momentum. Potential risk buildup.

• 🔹 Years ending in 7 : Historically, one of the most dangerous years, often bringing sharp downturns. Take a look at 1907 (Panic of 1907), 1937 (Recession), 1987 (Black Monday), 2007 (Global Financial Crisis).

• 🔹 Years ending in 8-9 : Recovery rallies take place, leading to euphoric highs before the next reset in a year ending in 0.

🔑 Right now, we’re heading into 2025—a year ending in 5. Historically, this is one of the strongest stock market years of any decade. But don’t get complacent—2026 and 2027 signal turbulence ahead.

The Interplay Between the Decade Cycle and the 18.6-Year Real Estate Cycle

While the Decade Cycle maps stock market movement, we cannot ignore the land cycle . The 18.6-year real estate cycle , mapped out extensively by Phil Anderson, shows that land values drive economic expansion and contraction .

How It Works

• 📈 Expansion Phase (~14 years) Land values rise, credit expands, and speculation drives real estate and stock markets higher.

• ⚠️ Mid-Cycle Slowdown (~Year 9 from the last bottom) Markets cool off momentarily—this is often mistaken for the final crash. But it’s a false alarm. The bull resumes.

• 💥 Peak & Collapse (~Years 17-18) Real estate prices become unsustainable, credit tightens, and the market crashes—pulling stocks and the economy down with it.

🔑 We're currently in the second half of the real estate cycle, with a peak projected around 2026-2027. This aligns dangerously with the unstable period in the Decade Cycle (years ending in 7). Investors should be preparing accordingly.

Market Forecasters Who Used the Decade Cycle

Edson Gould – The “Wizard of Wall Street”

• 🔹 Predicted market crashes with eerie accuracy —notably the 1974 market downturn.

• 🔹 Heavily relied on the Decade Cycle to time bullish and bearish phases.

• 🔹 Developed the “Three Steps and a Stumble” Rule—when the Federal Reserve hikes rates three times in a row, markets tend to decline.

Yale Hirsch – The "Fifth-Year Effect"

• 🔹 Discovered the years ending in 5 phenomenon , where markets almost always perform strongly.

• 🔹 Published the Stock Trader’s Almanac , widely used by traders to forecast market movements.

What This Means for 2025-2027

• 🔹 Observed that history repeats in cycles , including stock and land cycles.

• 🔹 Used time-based market forecasting to predict reversals years in advance.

What This Means for 2025-2027

Now is a moment of opportunity —but it’s also the calm before the storm . Based on our study of both the Decade Cycle and Real Estate Cycle , here’s what to watch:

• ✅ 2025: Bullish – Expect one of the strongest stock market years of the decade.

• ⚠️ 2026: Possible weakness – The first cracks may start to appear as we move closer to the real estate cycle peak.

• 🚨 2027: A Major Market Shock? – Years ending in 7 historically see sharp stock market declines , aligning with the expected peak of the real estate cycle.

How to Prepare

• 🛡️ Invest Aggressively in 2025 – Bull cycles are rare opportunities, but don’t get greedy. Set clear exit points.

• 🔎 Watch Leading Indicators – Interest rate hikes, credit tightening, and yield curve inversions.

• 🏗️ Closely Monitor the Real Estate Market – If land prices start showing signs of topping out, prepare to de-risk.

• 💰 Hold Cash & Hard Assets – Before a downturn, capital preservation is key. Gold and Bitcoin may be useful hedges.

The smart money isn’t surprised by market crashes—they see them coming and position themselves to win before they happen . Understand the cycles, act strategically, and you won’t just survive— you’ll thrive.

Sources

• Catherine Cashmore Newsletter: https://www.landcycleinvestor.com/post/the-wizard-of-wall-st-and-the-fifth-year-effect-2025-and-the-decade-cycle