TLDR

• 🚀 The 18-Year Cycle Decoded : Land markets peak in 2026, crash looming by 2028; history repeats, patterns never lie.

• 🏦 Governments Fuel Final Frenzy : Pre-election spending pumps markets; peaks intensify, but intervention only delays the inevitable crash.

• 📉 Crash Survival Playbook : Diversify wealth, stay liquid, and follow the cycle—timing is your ultimate weapon.

• 🌍 Rethink the System : Land value taxation can end booms, busts, and inequality; it's time to rewrite the rules.

Understanding the 18.6-Year Land and Property Cycle

Understanding economic cycles isn't just about numbers—it's about seeing the patterns in time, the movements of markets, and the rhythm of human behavior when it comes to land, wealth, and financial power.

This newsletter will break down the conversation into easy-to-follow insights and actionable steps, helping you decode the complex but repetitive nature of economic cycles. We’ll dive into why land markets behave the way they do, how governments and policy choices influence these cycles, and why major changes in our economies are inevitable. If you’re looking for advice on navigating this next phase—on whether to save, invest, or safeguard your earnings—this guide is your compass.

The 18-Year Cycle: The Backbone of Market Movements

What Is the 18-Year Land Cycle? The 18-year land cycle is the foundational pattern of property markets. It’s based on land value being the core driver of economic booms and busts. Historically, this cycle repeats itself over and over, with a period of rising land prices peaking in a frenzy, followed by an inevitable crash. Fred Harrison traces this cycle as far back in history as early civilizations and notes that it’s not unique to any single country—it’s a global, systemic pattern tied to human behavior and how societies handle land and rent.

Key points in the 18-year cycle include:

• The Boom Phase: A rapid increase in land and property values as governments and credit systems flood markets with liquidity.

• The Mid-Cycle Slowdown: An economic cooling point—like 2008’s Great Recession—typically triggered by external shock, yet not catastrophic enough to derail the cycle.

• The Final Rocket Phase: The euphoric rise to the peak (e.g., 2026), marked by heavy speculation and widespread belief that prices will never fall.

• The Crash: Post-peak (likely beginning in 2028), as credit dries up, governments scramble for solutions, and property markets collapse.

What’s Been Happening: 2022-2023 Review

We’re currently seeing significant volatility in global property markets, characterized by high inflation, rising interest rates, and a reconfiguration of living patterns. The pandemic accelerated certain trends but didn’t derail the cycle.

• Interest Rates Rising : Central banks across the world—such as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England—are hiking rates to combat inflation. Still, this hasn’t stopped governments from pouring liquidity into economies to sustain land values.

• Hybrid Work and Land Redistribution : The rise of remote work has dispersed demand for properties further away from city hubs. However, total land rent extraction remains the same or higher as suburban, rural, and regional areas absorb this value.

• Media Confusion About Prices: Headlines often exaggerate short-term market corrections. Median property values may stabilize or slightly fall in nominal terms, but intrinsic land values and rents continue to rise in key locations.

2024-2026: The Final Phase Before the Peak

Election-Year Policies Fuel the Market Election years are crucial to markets because governments refuse to let economies falter on their watch.

What to Expect in 2024-2026:

• Politicians will pump money into the system—expect infrastructure spending, tax breaks, and housing affordability schemes designed to stimulate markets.

• Speculative behavior will escalate, as land and property investors drive prices to unsustainable peaks.

• Governments will intervene to prevent crashes, but those actions will only postpone the inevitable.

The 2026 Peak and the 2028 Reckoning

How Far Will Prices Drop? The crash following the 2026 peak won’t happen immediately—but when it comes, it will affect land markets globally. Harrison argues that this downturn will likely be more severe than 2008 because it’s no longer confined to a single country or region. Crises in one major economy (like the U.S. or China) will ripple worldwide.

Key Considerations for the Crash (2028 Onward):

1. Property Prices Could Halve: In past cycles, property values have plummeted by as much as 50% in affected regions.

2. Stock Markets Will Decline : Markets will overreact as businesses tied to property markets (construction, banking, real estate) falter.

3. Governments Will Flounder : Post-crash political instability will make responses chaotic, unlike 2008’s coordinated bailouts.

Where Should You Put Your Money?

The two most frequently asked questions: Where can you hide your wealth during a crash? How far will property prices fall?

The Grim Reality According to Fred Harrison: “There is no place to hide.” Sovereign debt markets, equities, property, and even cash may be compromised in a significant downturn. Trust in governments and institutions will erode. However, there are still ways to prepare and minimize exposure:

1. Diversify Across Asset Classes: Avoid over-concentrating your wealth in property or equities. Consider gold, commodities, and alternative assets with intrinsic value.

2. Be Liquidity-Focused: Keep a portion of your wealth easily accessible. During crashes, cash (despite inflation risks) often provides the liquidity needed to take advantage of market corrections.

3. Follow the Land Cycle: Timing is everything. Understand that after 2028, property markets will eventually recover—and knowing the cycle gives you the patience to act wisely during downturns.

The Role of Rent Extraction and Inequality

At its core, the 18-year cycle is driven by how land rents are extracted from economies. Land—unlike other goods—is finite. Its value is created not by individual owners but by the collective labor, infrastructure, and policies of society. The extraction of unearned income in the form of land rent distorts the economy:

• It Concentrates Wealth : Rent ends up in the hands of large property holders instead of circulating back to communities for equitable development.

• It Fuels Inefficiency : Policies subsidizing property speculation—rather than productive investment—slows long-term growth.

• It Exacerbates Crashes : Post-crash periods amplify wealth inequality as falling property values erode middle-class wealth.

What Needs to Change: Reimagining the Economy

Fred Harrison emphasizes that addressing the systemic crises of land and rent extraction is the only real solution. Governments need to adopt land value taxation, a policy that shifts taxation away from wages and income, and onto unearned rents. Doing so would eliminate the damaging booms and busts of the cycle and enable fair wealth distribution.

Why Land Value Taxation Works:

• Encourages productive investment instead of speculative hoarding of land.

• Reduces the cost of property ownership for working families.

• Stabilizes financial systems by removing land speculation bubbles.

Closing Thoughts: Change Starts With Awareness

Fred Harrison’s work isn’t just about predicting the future—it’s about empowering people to be resilient in turbulent times. We need to wake up to the structural imbalances created by land rent extraction and reimagine economies where governments, businesses, and households thrive together.

The 2026 peak and subsequent 2028 downturn aren’t just dates on a timeline—they’re pivotal moments for reassessing how we value land, wealth, and society. By understanding these patterns, you position yourself to not just survive, but thrive amidst the challenges ahead.